Binashi Research produces and supports rigorous, data-driven analysis of prediction markets — how they work, when they're accurate, and what they reveal about the future. We collaborate with academics, analysts, and institutions to advance the science of forecasting.
BINASHI RESEARCH
RESEARCH NOTE
Binashi Research Team
An introduction to how a crowd of traders, each acting on partial information, can produce a price that behaves like a probability — and why that price often moves before the headlines do.
RESEARCH NOTE
Binashi Research Team
A practical guide to interpreting Yes/No contract prices: what a 70¢ price really implies, how prices update as new information arrives, and common ways traders misread them.
RESEARCH NOTE
Binashi Research Team
A look at the trade-offs between prediction markets, opinion polling and expert forecasts — where each tends to do well, and where each tends to break down.
RESEARCH NOTE
Binashi Research Team
Why liquidity matters for price quality, how market design choices affect spreads and depth, and what that means for the markets you trade on Binashi.
RESEARCH NOTE
Binashi Research Team
What calibration means, how it's measured, and why tracking it over time is one of the clearest ways to judge whether a prediction market is actually informative.
RESEARCH THEMES
Measuring how closely market-implied probabilities track real-world outcome frequencies — whether events priced at 70% actually resolve in favour roughly 70% of the time.
Examining the technical mechanics of how prediction markets operate, including market design and structure, order flow, liquidity, and trading counterparty dynamics.
Evaluating the comparative performance of prediction market forecasts relative to alternative forecasting methods such as polls, expert opinions, consensus, and statistical models.
COLLABORATION
Share drafts, ideas, or collaboration requests. We prioritize concise, evidence-led writeups with clear signals.
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